Is Performance Becoming Reality? Washington Channels Mickey Rourke.

Will the non-payment of workers keep the debt ceiling at bay for a while?

A good starting point is the graph below from the Bipartisan Policy Center. For an order of magnitude calculation, let's say 2 million federal employees and contractors aren't paid (maybe a bit high) until the debt ceiling issue is resolved. If the average daily cost to the government per employee or contractor is $200 a day (maybe a bit low) then about $2 billion a week is deferred. Then if we assume the federal deficit of about $2 billion a day (The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the FY2013 deficit would finish up at about $640 billion), it takes a work week of salary deferrals to buy a day delay of the collision with the debt ceiling...which is not a lot. So, starting now,  the Administration has to negotiate both issues because the clock is ticking with or without a "government shutdown".

US Government Closed for Ceiling Repairs

Regarding the government shut-down, the administration and the Republicans are on separate lonely islands, like Gilligan and Crusoe (or Piggy and Jack Shepard). Neither party sees a way to rejoin civilization without egg on its face.

So, the stalemate will continue (and Boehner will live in his red hat) until they start negotiating the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling is the bridge home, egg free.

Spoiler alert! The final chapter of this drama is that the administration will make a small adjustment to the Affordable Care Act that doesn't delay its funding (e.g. a repeal of the medical device tax) in exchange for a comfortable increase in the debt ceiling.

If the markets think otherwise, they're wrong.

Occupy, Again?...That's So 2 Years Ago.