tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-82203529982568001642024-03-21T13:36:33.860-07:00Idea MechanicUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-77321490383452769942013-11-26T03:47:00.003-08:002013-11-26T03:47:56.692-08:00Bearish on iShares MSCI Philippines (EPHE)<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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In early
November 1991, just five months after the devastating eruption of Mount
Pinatubo, typhoon Uring struck the Eastern Visayas with heavy rains and winds
that caused Ormoc, Leyte’s capital, to be struck by a catastrophic flood like that produced in Tacloban by the tidal surge from typhoon Yolanda
(Haiyan). In the case of Uring, thousands of homes were destroyed and
4,922 people died. Deaths from Yolanda have already exceeded the fatalities
from Uring. As of November 22, the government listed over 5,600 dead and missing, about a million homes
destroyed or damaged, and damage to the majority of the area's coconut trees and wide-spread destruction of the rice crop.<br />
<br />
Four years after Uring recovery in Ormoc was still proceeding and recovery from Yolanda will be as slow or slower because: </div>
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1. The
Philippines has the lowest percentage of paved roads when compared with
neighbors Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore, according to 2010 data. It also
had the worst scores in other key indicators such as fixed phone lines,
households with power and electricity lost in transmission. <b>Poor infrastructure will delay rebuilding efforts.</b> </div>
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<br /></div>
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2. The
Philippines is the country that’s most at risk to natural hazards, according to
UK-based risk analysis firm Maplecroft. The country loses $1.6 billion dollars
a year on average each year because of natural disasters, according to the
Asian Development Bank. <b>The effects of typhoons are increased by the inability of Philippine agencies to address chronic environmental issues such as deforestation, soil erosion and water pollution are heightened by frequent typhoons.</b><br />
<br />
4. Crony capitalism and corruption are endemic. Awarding contracts to non-existent contractors and fake NGO's wastes millions in government funds each year. The judicial system vulnerable to political influence and corruption. <b>Corruption and political instability result in pessimism in investment</b>. </div>
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<br /></div>
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5. Sectors of
Filipino industry (such as banking, telecommunications, and property
development) are almost entirely monopolized by a few elite families. In 2012, Forbes Asia announced that the collective
wealth of the 40 richest Filipino families grew $13 billion during the
2010-2011 year, to $47.4 billion--an increase of 37.9 percent. Filipino
economist Cielito Habito calculated that the increased wealth of those families
was equivalent in value to over 3/4's of the country's increase in GDP at the time. <b>This income disparity is the highest
in Asia.</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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6. Overall national
poverty statistics are high; according to UNICEF 32% of children under age 5 suffer
from malnutrition, and about 60% of Filipinos die without having seen a healthcare
professional. In 2009,
annual reports found that 26.5 percent of Filipinos lived on less than $1 a day
-- <b>a poverty rate roughly the same level as Haiti's</b>. This leads to low domestic private investment.</div>
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<br /></div>
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7. Local government units (LGU’s)
are widely perceived as corrupt particularly by those living in other parts of
the country. (In 2012, Transparency International gave the Philippines a rank
of 105 out of 176, tied with Mali among others.) <b>Tax revenues will drop particularly in affected areas. </b><br />
<br />
8. The country suffers from low levels of investment: the Philippines' investment-to-GDP ratio currently
stands at 19.7% compared to 33% in
Indonesia and 27% in Thailand. Small and
medium enterprises (SMEs) account for roughly 99% of Filipino firms but SME's only generate 35% of GDP. The Philippine
economy is strongly dependent on remittances from millions of overseas
Filipino workers. <b>This exacerbates skill
shortages in technical areas.</b><br />
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
.</div>
IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-32358286039588288482013-11-26T03:14:00.002-08:002013-11-26T04:37:59.493-08:00Chart looks good for Barnes and Noble...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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" 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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8220352998256800164" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8220352998256800164" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a>The run-up to tomorrow's BKS earnings announcement<br />
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</a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8220352998256800164" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8220352998256800164" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8220352998256800164" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8220352998256800164" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8220352998256800164" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8220352998256800164" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a>IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-84321794155447572242013-11-19T03:02:00.001-08:002013-11-19T03:09:32.151-08:00Excerpts of Nov 16th 2013 Economist Article on Political Resistance to Helmets<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><i><a href="http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21589881-feel-wind-your-hair-bill-taxpayer-your-injuries-no-brainer" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Biking without a helmet...N</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">o brainer</span></span></span></a></i></b></span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #073763;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><i> </i></b></span></span> </span> During the 2013 legislative session, 19 bills were
introduced in 11 states to repeal all-rider helmet laws. None passed.
Appeals to thrift can take some of the credit. For years,
helmet-advocates stressed human suffering when giving evidence to state
legislatures. Now they also stress costs to taxpayers. Libertarians
often demand: “Let those who ride decide,” says Jacqueline Gillan, who
heads Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, an insurer-funded lobby
group. Her retort is: “Let those who pay have a say.”</span></span><br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">When states repeal or weaken motorcycle-helmet laws, as
dozens have, helmet use falls, fatalities rise and head-injury
hospitalisations soar. Biker deaths rose 18% after Michigan repealed its
all-rider helmet law in 2012. A rule obliges unhelmeted Michigan riders
to carry at least $20,000 in medical-payments coverage. That does not
even cover initial stabilisation in intensive care after a nasty crash... Deaths-per-bike-mile rose 25% when Texas
scrapped helmets, for instance. In Washington Tom Petri, the Republican
chairman of the House of Representatives committee that oversees
highways, wants the CDC to stop researching motorcycle safety. The
agency seems to have “an anti-motorcycle agenda”, he growls. Asked about
accidents involving the helmetless, he says: “I don’t think there’s
that clear a correlation.”</span></span></blockquote>
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IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-91650407294353694882013-11-11T03:57:00.005-08:002013-11-11T04:13:18.076-08:00Harley-Davidson: A Luxury CompanyTo assert that Harley-Davidson should be understood as a company that sells luxury items is to make an surprising claim for a company that has always played the populist card. However, as the company’s marketing is primarily based on presenting customers with the opportunity to display ownership of a product with a unique history and mystique the company has met the primary characteristic of a luxury brand. The company is certainly aware of this as can be seen by their exploitation of a product with a long-standing and unchanging sound, design and iconography. In addition, the company is always reinforcing the aspects of the motorcycles that create and preserve an emotional connection to the brand. Notably, Harley-Davidson does not primarily compete in the areas of product quality and technical engineering.<br /><br />Two definitions of luxury as “something inessential but conducive to pleasure and comfort” and something expensive fit the company’s motorcycles. In fact, although I would argue that the public display is the dominant value that Harley ownership provides; other luxury attributes are also present in Harley products. For example luxury brands (e.g. airplanes, yachts, etc.) may have a group that is exclusive to owners. So we have the Harley Owners Club, similar to the Rolls-Royce Enthusiasts' Club, both sharing a penchant for anniversary celebrations, historical memorabilia and owner and museum collections. Also, Harley-Davidson’s use of limited editions, special series, but especially customization as a way to build a sense of exclusivity is standard fare for luxury products such as watches and sports cars.<br /><br />Another attribute of luxury brands is a non-utilitarian focus. With the company’s bikes it is sufficient to merely own one and use it occasionally for social events. Whether diamonds or motorcycles, function can take a back seat to mystique.<br /><br />Where Harley has a problem as a luxury brand is in the creation of scarcity, that distinctive feature of many luxury goods. In the early 2000’s the company could not keep up with demand and the wait for delivery became part of the experience. Now, however, the factory is not running at capacity and the company would love to bring scarcity back as part of the brand. Although this would eventually dilute the brand (imagine Harleys everywhere), unfortunately customers have become as scarce as bikes were ten years ago.<br /><br />How should investors value such a company that makes luxury goods to a slowly declining customer base? If we factor out any prospects for growth the company’s value is very sensitive to P/E, borrowing costs, discount rate and free cash flow projections but my current estimate is that somewhere in the range of $25-$30 for 2015. After that, we shall see. IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-7922893213615108142013-11-09T04:13:00.002-08:002013-11-11T04:22:03.485-08:00Idea Mechanic Report: Analysis of Harley-Davidson's Latest 10-Q<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B4T33oZTuT6CYnhNNi1ibnF6Z28/edit?usp=drive_web" target="_blank">CLICK HERE for the latest H-D Report</a><br />
<span id="goog_815363128"></span><span id="goog_815363129"></span><br />
<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4T33oZTuT6CZjFVeC1sLXc1RlU/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">CLICK HERE for the October H-D report.</a> IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-40117899669877136572013-11-08T04:07:00.000-08:002013-11-08T04:20:15.778-08:00An Aging Company Selling an Aging Product Tries Again to Broaden its Appeal.Harley-Davidson <span style="color: blue;"><a href="http://www.kansascity.com/2013/11/06/4602128/harleys-kansas-city-plant-to-build.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">announced</span> </a></span>the other day that they would make another attempt to attract a few customers from their rivals, e.g. Honda, Suzuki, Yamaha, BMW etc. The super-heavyweight bikes that H-D sells are facing a <a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/11/harley-davidson_demographics-downfall-baby-boomers/" target="_blank">declining customer base</a>, particularly for new bikes (between dealers, E-bay, craigslist, etc. there are hundreds of thousands of used Harley's for sale). So, management has decided to try to sell a "lighter" bike (“These new bikes are leaner, yet still have a mean streak,” Mark Hans
Richer, a senior vice president at Harley-Davidson, said in a statement.
“They’re the real deal, made of real steel.”)<br />
<br />
This attempt to attract a new customer base was tried before: in 1998, the Buell Motorcycle Company became a wholly-owned H-D subsidiary. This infusion of technology allowed H-D management to bring out the Buell Blast in 2000. It was, at 360 lbs and with a 492 cc engine, management's idea of an entry-level training bike and was used in H-D's "Rider's Edge" rider instruction schools. However, the Blast (and other Buell models) never sold that well and under the cover of the 2008 financial crisis, in late 2009, Harley management shut Buell down. In a rare show of humor, H-D released an ad in July 2009, showing a Blast destroyed by an automobile crusher. <br />
<br />
Yet this 10 year Blast experiment (selling a lighter, sportier bike for first-time purchasers) is now going to be repeated with the Street 500 and Street 750 models. Before marketing even begins, one obvious problem with this approach is that a 500cc bike is too powerful for beginners...so who is going to buy it - certainly not riders in the market for the more sophisticated Japanese models. And it's unlikely that this bike can find much traction in the already mature Indian motorcycle and scooter market.IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-86773332132169808252013-11-07T17:18:00.002-08:002013-11-10T13:44:52.217-08:00Redline of last two 10-Q's from Harley-DavidsonHere's a comparison of the company's last two 10-Q's. The red lines show the deletes and the blue text is new. <br />
<br />
<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4T33oZTuT6CcmFiVGx6N0pQcG8/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4T33oZTuT6CcmFiVGx6N0pQcG8/edit?usp=sharing</a><br />
<br />
<br />IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-47429830656158294762013-11-04T03:31:00.001-08:002013-11-09T04:09:23.867-08:00The Blind Spot that Harley-Davidson exploits is closing. <span style="font-size: small;">Harley-Davidson, in an act of branding that bears comparison with Philip Morris's Marlboro man, has, for decades, sold the idea that a simpler, more real existence can be lived on the back of a heavy motorcycle. By riding a Harley, the advertising suggests, consumers can share in a collective dream of rugged individualism lived on the open road. Yet, long after the hazards of smoking were public knowledge, the Marlboro ads were directly responsible for selling billions of cigarettes that contributed to the deaths of millions of people . These exercises in branding are so successful because as President Reagan said: “Americans believed about the West not so much what was true, but what they thought ought to be true.” </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Unfortunately, for all the joys of riding an adult version of a kid's bike with playing cards snapping in the spokes, heavy bikes are really very unsafe. The fatality rate is 30 times that of automobiles and heavyweight bikes and superbikes are arguably the most dangerous vehicles on the road. Yet, health and safety issues are largely ignored by the industry. This is partly because the ethos of the heavy motorcycle use includes an explicit hyper-individualism, a value that makes issues of health and safety irrelevant. Of the potentially 1,000 people that will die riding Harley-Davidson motorcycles this year many share either a magical sense of invulnerability or a fatalistic approach to safety that includes resistance to helmet wearing. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">For others, heavy bikes are assumed to be as safe as cars which over the last fifty years have benefited from greatly improved safety design and engineering. The primacy of the driver for car safety issues (reflected in the excitement surrounding the development of the driver-less car) disappears when the discussion turns to motorcycle safety. Fortunately, a decline in the emotional significance of car driving for young adult males will slowly translate into lower super-heavyweight bike sales for H-D. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Although we cannot know in advance who will die in motorcycle accidents each year, we can predict that approximately 4,600 people will do so, no matter how avoidable each of those crashes may be understood to have been. Yet the only real pro-safety action by industry groups has been the marketing of remedial-level rider courses. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Groups involved with dangerous products, such as the NRA and the tobacco industry, have historically spent millions of dollars to keep regulation to a minimum. For motorcycles, much of the battle has been fought around helmet laws. A safety device that would save hundreds or thousands of lives annually has been portrayed as an annoying intrusion into the free-spirited existence of motorcycle riders and motorcycle related head injuries and fatalities continue to be portrayed as mere side-effects of motorcycle use. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">The industry continues to rely on consumers ignoring the safety risks built into the design of a heavy or super-heavyweight motorcycles. Fortunately for Harley, there is just no way that consumers can test the crash characteristics of heavy bikes. </span>IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-2879130430854879602013-11-02T04:29:00.001-07:002013-11-09T04:10:58.392-08:00A short version of Risk Factors from their H-D's latest10-K<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">There
is no assurance that the Company will be able to grow. </span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Translation: women and residents of
Mumbai may never buy an 800-lb motorcycle.</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Company
must protect its intellectual property from imitators by making product
advancements while maintaining the classic look, sound and feel…. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Translation: Any suggestions from
customers would be welcome because we’ve run out of ideas. (see Rushmore) </span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">The
Company must detect issues with the Company's motorcycles or manufacturing
processes to avoid recall campaigns, increased warranty costs or litigation,
and delays in new model launches. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Translation: The recent 29,000 bike
recall is hopefully not a sign of quality issues. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">If
the Company's credit ratings are downgraded or its ratings outlook is
negatively changed, the Company's cost of borrowing will increase, resulting in
reduced earnings and interest margins, or the Company's access to capital may
be disrupted or impaired.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Translation:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Keep S&P, Moody, and Fitch analysts
happy. </span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">The
Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection ("CFPB"), has been granted
significant enforcement and rule-making authority in the area of consumer
financial products and services… Compliance may create operational constraints
and place limits on pricing.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Translation:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We love getting 20+% interest but those days
may be numbered. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Many
of the Company's competitors are more diversified than the Company... Also, the
Company's manufacturer's suggested retail price for its motorcycles is generally
higher than its competitors. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Translation:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our competitors are bigger and richer and
their bikes are cheaper. </span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">The
Company's current and future total compensation arrangements… may not be
successful in attracting new employees and retaining and motivating the
Company's existing employees. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Translation:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cutting labor costs may cause quality issues.
(see the recall)</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">The
Company manufactures products that create exposure to product liability claims
and litigation. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Translation:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nobody has blamed us so far, but they sure
could. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Further,
shipping products with poor quality may also adversely affect the Company's
reputation.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Translation:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>May???</span></b></span></div>
IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-86074528068518644262013-10-29T03:19:00.002-07:002013-10-29T03:19:22.533-07:00Harley-Davidson Accident Bill may exceed $3 billion...<style>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Using estimates from the GAO November 2012 report on motorcycle safety: </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Total bill (direct costs) for motorcycle crashes in 2010 = $16 billion. Ignoring indirect costs and assuming (as GAO does) that victims and their families cover 25% of those costs, leaves society with a bill of say $12 billion. What fraction of this is attributable to H-D bikes? Conservatively, based on motorcycle registrations and H-D's own sales figures, a guess might be 25%. So, H-D has supplemented $3.8 billion in bike sales with a bill to the public of $3 billion in accident-related costs. The siren call of the open road, hold me back!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><br />57% of 2012 U.S. new heavyweight motorcycle registrations (282,000) were Harleys</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><b>Excerpts from the report: </b> In
2010, an estimated 95,000 motorcycle crashes occurred in the U.S. and 4,423 (4612 in 2011) of
these crashes were fatal...</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">while motorcycles accounted for only about 3
percent of all registered vehicles, they were involved in about 15 percent of
all fatal vehicle crashes. </span></div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"></span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"></span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Motorcycle
crashes are more likely to be fatal than other types of vehicle crashes...almost 5 percent
of the 95,000 motorcycle crashes in 2010 resulted in at least one fatality...</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">according to NHTSA, motorcyclists
were about 30 times more likely to die in a traffic crash than passenger car
occupants per vehicle mile traveled in 2010.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 6.5pt;"></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Studies
indicate that the costs of motorcycle crashes are significant, but have only
estimated specific types of these costs. We conducted our own analysis ...and estimate that the direct measurable costs of
motorcycle crashes—those costs that directly result from a crash and that can
and have been measured—were approximately $16 billion in 2010. However,
accurately determining the full costs is difficult because some—such as
long-term medical costs and intangible costs related to emotional pain and
suffering—are difficult to measure. Thus, the full costs of motorcycle crashes
are likely higher than our estimate. Victims and their families as well as
society—including employers, private insurers, healthcare providers,
government, and others—bear these costs. <b>NHTSA estimated that society bears
about three-quarters of the measurable costs of all motor vehicle crashes.
</b>Society’s share of the costs of motorcycle crashes may be similar or higher, in
part because injuries from these crashes are more severe.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Studies
we identified on the costs of motorcycle crashes indicate that the costs are
significant, but the studies estimated only specific types of direct measurable
costs. Direct measurable costs are those costs directly resulting from a crash
that can and have been measured. One study, conducted by CDC and Pacific
Institute for Research and Evaluation, estimated three categories of costs
associated with motorcycle crashes: medical costs, costs associated with the
loss in market productivity (lost wages), and costs associated with the loss in
household productivity (costs of hiring someone to perform household tasks).
The study estimated that the total for these cost categories for all motorcycle
crashes nationwide in 2005 was $12 billion.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 6.5pt;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">A number of the studies we identified estimated
only the motorcycle crash victims’ medical costs. One such study estimated that
the total hospital charges for the initial treatment of motorcyclists injured
in traffic crashes in Florida in 2010 was $348 million.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</blockquote>
IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-10301873532293902462013-10-24T16:27:00.001-07:002013-10-24T16:27:41.603-07:00Project MUSHMOREHarley-Davidson is claiming Project RUSHMORE as a new day in their product development approach. So a company long known for merging their customers into their brand is now involving their customers in a new way? And what way is that? <br /><br />Well, according to Mark-Hans Richer, Harley-Davidson Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer, Project Rushmore "...we’ve been focused on taking the total rider and passenger experience to the next level. We come together - to quote the Beatles - through a process that uses not just formal feedback, but the kind of input we get from listening to customers out on the road, and then we blend that with our engineering and styling expertise. For years at Harley-Davidson we’ve been saying that we ride with you. Project RUSHMORE elevates that devotion to a higher level."<br /><br />from H-D's web site: "Project RUSHMORE is the result of an entirely new way to produce motorcycles. In a process that invokes the voice of the customer throughout an accelerated development program, the ideas and dreams of thousands of motorcyclists are allowed to percolate with those of Harley-Davidson employees. "<br /><br />That's it? Some marketingspeak, a re-branding...how much did the consultants charge to propose that?<br /><br />Oh, and one of the eight "extraordinary" bikes "that will recalibrate the expectations of the touring motorcyclist" is the 2014 CVO Road King which was, taking "devotion to a higher level", offered for $1500 less than the 2013 model but stripped of lower fairings, front and saddlebag speakers, 8GB iPod, and 200W audio amp, items easily worth > $2000. <br /><br /><br />IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-32796483373653364302013-10-22T20:03:00.002-07:002013-10-22T20:05:17.522-07:00CorrectionPlease note that the Idea Mechanic Report on Harley-Davidson has been updated to reference the failure of Harley-Davidson to 8-K the <b>$600 million issuance of medium-term notes in September 2012</b> (rather than the $400 million issuance in December 2012, as previously written). Also, please note that references to Buffett are intended to include Berkshire Hathaway. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-33434591654706976762013-10-21T19:53:00.001-07:002013-10-26T01:04:02.898-07:00Idea Mechanic Report on Harley-Davidson<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKX1AaPhzN__k0hRoSAq1bZNAV9dVXuuRbiWBPgug3Yr3j0_3znGQ9K2pGHyHwGTlw0kpc52E9pHPoq-SxgV0JoGApz8RGC7BEo7XBUlN0nlp7g2JqRzXwJ4SP667PWFPIX7eS1dpwp7hW/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-10-22+at+2.33.58+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKX1AaPhzN__k0hRoSAq1bZNAV9dVXuuRbiWBPgug3Yr3j0_3znGQ9K2pGHyHwGTlw0kpc52E9pHPoq-SxgV0JoGApz8RGC7BEo7XBUlN0nlp7g2JqRzXwJ4SP667PWFPIX7eS1dpwp7hW/s200/Screen+Shot+2013-10-22+at+2.33.58+PM.png" height="131" width="200" /></a></div>
<a href="https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B4T33oZTuT6CN0Ewc2RaSW1wdDA/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank"><br /></a><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4T33oZTuT6CZjFVeC1sLXc1RlU/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">CLICK HERE FOR THE REPORT</a>IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-2501657495577875742013-10-21T03:22:00.000-07:002013-10-21T03:22:10.262-07:00Amazon concedes the dedicated e-reader market to Kobo and Barnes & NobleThis year's Amazon Paperwhite is similar to last year's with a brighter light on its 6-inch display. There is still no memory card slot or headphone jack and continues to not support both audiobooks and open source EPUB files. Ads cost $20 to remove. (it does obviously support the two Kindle proprietary formats AZW and AZW3, and with some fiddling, Acrobat, txt, Word, and mobi files.<br />
<br />
Based on the pricing and functionality it is clear that Amazon has shifted its focus to the tablet market. Unfortunately, Apple, Google and Samsung all have arguably better tablets for the price. IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-43927003856658244052013-10-20T15:07:00.000-07:002013-10-31T08:43:53.735-07:00Trick Rather than Treat? Why the Fed [SHOULD] Taper in October.<b>(Updated 10/31: indeed the Fed continued it's current bond-buying program. The market dropped, though. Right for the wrong reasons.)</b> <br />
<br />
Occasionally politics and the Federal Reserve intertwine, like on the eve of a Presidential election, a government shutdown, or the confirmation of a new Fed Chairwoman. So, here we are, mere days away from Yellen's confirmation hearings <u>and</u> a Fed board meeting. What, oh what, will the Fed do?<br />
<br />
Considering the whole context, the Fed would be smart to start tapering its $85 billion (per month) bond buying program in October. Here's why:<br />
<br />
1. In her confirmation hearings, Yellen will be questioned by Republicans about her 'easy money' philosophy. If the Fed plans to delay a taper until 2014, these questions will drag on and on and the confirmation hearing will be a painful snoozefest and will be used by certain Senators to do a little grandstanding. If the Fed tapers a little bit in October, these questions will be more easily dismissed. (And it doesn't matter how the market responds to the taper -- Yellen can say either, 'see, easy money is needed considering that the market tanked after a small taper', or 'see, I'm not about easy money, I am about the <i>right </i>amount of money, e.g. this taper that we just did successfully'.)<br />
<br />
2. The Administration needs ammo in the upcoming budget negotiations with Republicans, and the kind of ammo they want is: "see, government isn't that big, and we're making it smaller!"<br />
<br />
3. The Fed <i>almost </i>tapered in September, but decided otherwise at the last minute, presumably to hedge against the government shutdown/default risks. As it turned out, the market didn't care much about these risks, and now the stock market is at a terrifying height. Furthermore, Shiller just won the Nobel Prize (and Yellen's
husband and Shiller are buddies), so it's hard to imagine that
the Fed could stomach a stock market bubble for more than an instant. <br />
<br />
4. The Administration has made it clear (and Republicans have too) that the government will not shut down in January.<br />
<br />
5. The Fed likes surprises, e.g. last month.<br />
<br />
6. The Fed knows how to get the data it needs. The shutdown isn't going to prevent it from managing the economy. <br />
<br />
7. Delaying the taper means that the Fed might have to do a larger initial taper when it finally decides to do so, and a large initial taper doesn't seem like either Bernanke's or Yellen's style. <br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-70247147508865619352013-10-20T14:22:00.000-07:002013-10-20T14:22:18.924-07:00Barnes & Noble's Bookstore Earnings should hit $3 in 2014<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Think
of Barnes and Noble bookstores like Starbucks coffee shops, not your local independent coffee place, but a reliable, ubiquitous, safety net of retailing. B&N is the
dominant creative force in the printed book retailing. As an innovator B&N stands to continue to benefit from printed book sales. The American Booksellers Association reported earlier this year
that sales at independent bookstores rose about 8 percent in 2012 over 2011. 90%
of Americans who have bought eBooks continue to buy traditional books as well. (Bowker
Market Research) </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">As
people move to tablets for reading e-books, the battle between e-readers is
becoming moot. In April, the </span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Book
Industry Study Group announced that multi-function tablets were the preferred
e-reading devices, exceeding the use of dedicated e-readers</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">.
Just as iTunes spread to every type of device, so e-book apps are now ubiquitous.
The use of an open source ebook publishing format does favor B&N over Amazon. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">(</span>Not surprisingly, most of the growth of eBooks
has been in people reading novels) </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Don’t
underestimate the ability of B&N retail stores to generate e-book sales for
B&N. The competition with Amazon is receding as Amazon has moved way beyond
books in their marketing. If you think Amazon is out to drive B&N out of
business remember 1997 when Microsoft (to keep Apple healthy and lessen the
risk of anti-trust charges) agreed to support Office for macs as well as invest
$150 million in AAPL. </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS Mincho"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Almost
all of BN's bookstores were profitable last year, and, leaving out the Nook, net
income per share was at least $2.50.</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS Mincho"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">With
Len Riggio back at the helm, expect to see some low-performing stores closed
and a series of new stores in underserved areas. There have been suggestions (similar
to Walmart’s announced strategy) of the development of satellite stores. </span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-46338967081882395952013-10-16T01:04:00.004-07:002013-10-16T01:04:50.202-07:00Walmart to Adopt a proposed Barnes and Noble marketing approach. Wal-Mart has announced plans to open more small stores with logistical support provided by nearby Supercenter stores. This plan, announced at Walmart annual meeting on Tuesday, will "tether" smaller stores to the larger ones in a push to fill in the retail "ecosystem." The Idea Mechanic report on Barnes and Noble has proposed a similar framework of smaller Barnes and Noble stores to take advantage of the logistical flexibility that smaller (down to Starbucks size) stores would offer the retailer. A key feature of this approach for B&N would be the creation of new spaces for community social activities, a traditional attraction of small independent bookstores. IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-83922136534420255382013-10-14T00:10:00.004-07:002013-10-14T00:10:58.089-07:00Bookstores remain centers of community life. <div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
Community support is a critical factor in the resurgence of Barnes and Noble. Ironically the independent bookstores that were threatened by the rise of the big box B&N and Borders stores over a decade ago are now leading indicators of the future of B&N. Sales at independent bookstores are rising(8% y-o-y) due to a number of factors including the demise of Borders, the tepid economic recovery with limited discretionary income, and a decline in the novelty of reading a book on a tablet. It appears that e-book sales can grow along with the sales of printed books. </div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
"I think the worst days of the independents are behind them," says Jim Milliot of Publishers Weekly magazine. "The demise of traditional print books has been a bit overblown. Everybody is a little anxious, but they are starting to think they've figured it out for the time being."</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1em; padding: 0px;">
How does this benefit Barnes & Noble? Oddly, B&N stores are now key local resources and are no longer seen as the enemy of the local bookstore...they are the local bookstores. </div>
IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-88070215376199374932013-10-08T02:09:00.003-07:002013-10-08T02:14:20.200-07:00A Rising Tide at Year's End?<h3>
<b>Suggestive more than anything, but the last two years of daily returns suggest that October is volatile but on the average up, while November </b><b>and December </b><b>are more consistently up. </b></h3>
<h3>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkbqxE2hLRhV14r6giUiB4Oij6LeqDNNJs9tf24BcoGU8mEb16kW82kIPBSrMxfXkZ7j1ZZkkjleAbStz_LOzhj4XggK2QPdHO-yUs1kl_7LZcnkL8n530bx6FK13cw6Iqleb7LdaYRW9b/s1600/bks.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkbqxE2hLRhV14r6giUiB4Oij6LeqDNNJs9tf24BcoGU8mEb16kW82kIPBSrMxfXkZ7j1ZZkkjleAbStz_LOzhj4XggK2QPdHO-yUs1kl_7LZcnkL8n530bx6FK13cw6Iqleb7LdaYRW9b/s1600/bks.png" height="398" width="400" /></a></h3>
<br />IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-64938922694849027492013-10-06T14:39:00.003-07:002013-10-06T14:41:51.324-07:00BKS begins its climb to world dominance? As behavioral finance teaches us, even our blind spots have biases with additional blind spots. This is a good thing for the stock picker in a sideways market because the institutional investor herd is prone to react to an ever changing set of fears, rumors, scenarios, etc. There is a lot of sector rotation, jumps in and out of emerging markets and hot stocks, until finally, looking back, it is hard to distinguish much real change. With all the current anticipation of news on interest rates ("tapering") , federal budgets, and debt ceilings, occasionally a situation does jump out as truly reflecting a change in a company's fortunes. As an example, Barnes and Noble (BKS) shares jumped on Friday (October 4) over 10 percent on high volume. As there has been no real news from or about the company for weeks (other than a late September Goldman price target of $17) I would suggest that this is a sign of a shift in the realities of book selling occurring just as company architect Len Riggio returns to run things. He built it once and given BKS's near-monopoly position in the US bookstore world, should be able to expand with stores in both smaller US communities and under-served retail environments in Europe and Asia. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-9392016602157122202013-10-04T04:44:00.000-07:002013-10-04T16:02:38.421-07:00Some sentiments are still true...<b>From almost a hundred years ago, but with some minor edits it still holds...</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidwEoUipWlnxDXkeiP15nRbJs2BmNYEyqGD6Vvl60aUfkm2GFrDTTsQFbFLPgWbyIfHEsZbmhNzqVIJppf9LJg-bCwtBgpUnEOaSdjem_Ptfj193-NZrphirTxTG1fjFCpcUDV1P3W07Fo/s1600/a.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidwEoUipWlnxDXkeiP15nRbJs2BmNYEyqGD6Vvl60aUfkm2GFrDTTsQFbFLPgWbyIfHEsZbmhNzqVIJppf9LJg-bCwtBgpUnEOaSdjem_Ptfj193-NZrphirTxTG1fjFCpcUDV1P3W07Fo/s1600/a.png" /></a></div>
<br />IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-20070639230251265942013-10-03T12:34:00.000-07:002013-10-03T12:34:53.120-07:00Is Performance Becoming Reality? Washington Channels Mickey Rourke.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsCAOtGqXDr11OE3RdEZn-QJHHntyzlHVbiXeAlvDNS3szdzUOuam3Sb3mMu5fpOJs-YGeeCTzEBYyWypHyGutGp22mfOOH2B8v1NWGp5mSepLrzwQSLO08xZez_CJwxvb2jxwwjmBxGGb/s1600/Picture+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsCAOtGqXDr11OE3RdEZn-QJHHntyzlHVbiXeAlvDNS3szdzUOuam3Sb3mMu5fpOJs-YGeeCTzEBYyWypHyGutGp22mfOOH2B8v1NWGp5mSepLrzwQSLO08xZez_CJwxvb2jxwwjmBxGGb/s640/Picture+2.png" width="472" /></a></div>
<br />IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-19495314586636945232013-10-03T03:59:00.003-07:002013-10-03T12:35:40.642-07:00The Hazard of Fighting over the Deck Chairs as the Ship Sinks <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">The lively performance this year of that theater of the absurd classic "The Annual Federal Budget Negotiations" has captured our attention while the more nebulous (yet potentially catastrophic) event, the default of the U.S. government on its debt, is looming ever closer. The so-called debt ceiling is a self-inflicted limit (see excerpt of Treasury Secretary Lew's October 1 letter to Congressional leaders below)</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>. </b>In any case<b>, if the bankruptcy of Lehman taught us anything it is that the world is a lot more connected than we expect it to be</b>. For an overview of the possible fallout:<b> <a href="https://www.dws-investments.com/EN/docs/research/I-32798-1_Government_Shutdown_Risk_and_Debt.pdf">https://www.dws-investments.com/EN/docs/research/I-32798-1_Government_Shutdown_Risk_and_Debt.pdf</a></b></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: small;">CBO and other agencies and analysts estimate that the Treasury could have until Halloween before the ceiling is hit but the default occurs when the Secretary and the President say it does. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">October 1, 2013 <br />I am writing to follow up on my previous letters regarding the Department of the Treasury's responsibility to finance the government and to protect the full faith and credit of the United States. In May of this year, the U.S. government reached the statutory debt limit, and Treasury began taking certain extraordinary measures to be able to continue, on a temporary basis, to pay the nation's bills. Today, I am writing to inform Congress that as of today Treasury has begun using the final extraordinary measures. There are no other legal and prudent options to extend the nation's borrowing authority. The impact of these measures was incorporated into the forecast that I shared with you last week, and Treasury continues to believe that extraordinary measures will be exhausted no later than October 17, 2013. Each of these measures is authorized by law, and each has been used by previous Secretaries of the Treasury during past debt limit impasses: Treasury will suspend, as necessary, the daily reinvestment of the portion of the Exchange Stabilization Fund that is invested in Treasury securities. Treasury will enter into a debt swap with the Federal Financing Bank and the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF), which will lead to the elimination of a limited amount of debt that counts against the debt limit...It is important to note that once the final extraordinary measures are exhausted, no later than October 17, we will be left to meet our country's commitments at that time with only approximately $30 billion. This amount would be far short of net expenditures on certain days, which can be as high as $60 billion. </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">
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<br />IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-49247658462959312112013-10-02T04:10:00.003-07:002013-10-03T12:35:59.823-07:00Will the non-payment of workers keep the debt ceiling at bay for a while?A good starting point is the graph below from the Bipartisan Policy Center. For an order of magnitude calculation, let's say 2 million federal employees and contractors aren't paid (maybe a bit high) until the debt ceiling issue is resolved. If the average daily cost to the government per employee or contractor is $200 a day (maybe a bit low) then about $2 billion a week is deferred. Then if we assume the federal deficit of about $2 billion a day (The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the FY2013 deficit would finish up at about $640 billion), it takes a work week of salary deferrals to buy a day delay of the collision with the debt ceiling...which is not a lot. So, starting now, the Administration has to negotiate both issues because the clock is ticking with or without a "government shutdown".<br />
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<img alt="" class="aligncenter" height="398" src="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2013/09/debtXdate.jpg" width="553" /> Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8220352998256800164.post-59489580616838158352013-10-01T13:04:00.000-07:002013-10-01T13:05:11.039-07:00US Government Closed for Ceiling RepairsRegarding the government shut-down, the administration and the Republicans are on separate lonely islands, like Gilligan and Crusoe (or Piggy and Jack Shepard). Neither party sees a way to rejoin civilization without egg on its face.<br />
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So, the stalemate will continue (and Boehner will live in <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-30/john-boehners-secret-signal-that-a-shutdown-is-imminent" target="_blank">his red hat</a>) until they start negotiating the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling is the bridge home, egg free.<br />
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<i>Spoiler alert! </i>The final chapter of this drama is that the administration will make a small adjustment to the Affordable Care Act that doesn't delay its funding (e.g. a <a href="http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/01/durbin-medical-device-tax-repeal-could-be-on-the-table/" target="_blank">repeal of the medical device tax</a>) in exchange for a comfortable increase in the debt ceiling.<br />
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If the markets think otherwise, they're wrong.IMBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14632828478263184608noreply@blogger.com0